Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data

Parkin, John, Wardman, Mark and Page, Matthew (2008) Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data. Transportation, 35 (1). pp. 93-109. ISSN 0049-4488

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A model is presented that relates the proportion of bicycle journeys to work for English and Welsh electoral wards to relevant socio-economic, transport and physical variables. A number of previous studies have exploited existing disaggregate data sets. This study uses UK 2001 census data, is based on a logistic regression model and provides complementary evidence based on aggregate data for the determinants of cycle choice. It suggests a saturation level for bicycle use of 43%. Smaller proportions cycle in wards with more females and higher car ownership. The physical condition of the highway, rainfall and temperature each have an effect on the proportion that cycles to work, but the most significant physical variable is hilliness. The proportion of bicycle route that is off-road is shown to be significant, although it displays a low elasticity (+0.049) and this contrasts with more significant changes usually forecast by models constructed from stated preference based data. Forecasting shows the trend in car ownership has a significant effect on cycle use and offsets the positive effect of the provision of off-road routes for cycle traffic but only in districts that are moderately hilly or hilly. The provision of infrastructure alone appears insufficient to engender higher levels of cycling.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Published in Transportation © Springer. The definitive publication is available at
Uncontrolled Keywords: bicycle,Journey to work,Logistic regression model,Census,Travel demand modelling
Divisions: School of Engineering > Civil Engineering
Depositing User: Scott Wilson
Date Deposited: 26 Nov 2013 12:52
Last Modified: 19 Feb 2014 13:49
Identification Number: 10.1007/s11116-007-9137-5

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