Cognitive processes underlying lottery and sports gambling decisions: the role of stated probabilities and background knowledge

Ranyard, Rob and Charlton, John P. (2006) Cognitive processes underlying lottery and sports gambling decisions: the role of stated probabilities and background knowledge. European journal of cognitive psychology, 18 (2). pp. 234-254. ISSN 0954-1446

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Abstract

Two studies compared choice and underlying cognitive processes in equivalent decision tasks involving risk and uncertainty (lotteries versus sports gambles including displayed expert probability judgments). In sports gambles, background knowledge was triggered via information on team location, home or away. Otherwise, displayed risk information (stake, winnings, odds and outcome probabilities) was controlled across gamble type. In a choice study, home win bets were chosen significantly more frequently than draws or away wins, compared to lottery equivalents. In a parallel study eliciting concurrent verbal protocols, participants made fewer evaluations of odds and probabilities, and more statements involving background knowledge in sports gambles. Furthermore, some sports gamble protocols indicated modifications of stated probabilities and decision strategies contingent on domain knowledge. It was concluded that stated probability revision and knowledge-based reasoning are key cognitive processes in sports gambling not normally applied in the lottery paradigms often employed in decision research.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an electronic version of an article published in the European journal of cognitive psychology as Ranyard, R. and Charlton, J. Cognitive processes underlying lottery and sports gambling decisions: The role of stated probabilities and background knowledge, 2006, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 234-254. The European journal of cognitive psychology is available online at informaworldTM at http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/266117_751308528_757622308.pdf
Uncontrolled Keywords: Risk, Decision making, uncertainty, probability revision, decision strategy, knowledge-based reasoning
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: School of Education and Psychology > Psychology
Depositing User: Scott Wilson
Date Deposited: 26 Nov 2013 12:51
Last Modified: 07 Jan 2014 09:53
Identification Number: 10.1080/09541440540000149
URI: http://ubir.bolton.ac.uk/id/eprint/348

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