Climate change model as a decision support tool for water resources management in northern Iraq: a case study of Greater Zab River

Osman, Yassin Z. ORCID: 0000-0003-1121-6598, Al-Ansari, Nadhir and Abdellatif, Mawada E. (2019) Climate change model as a decision support tool for water resources management in northern Iraq: a case study of Greater Zab River. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 10 (1). pp. 197-209. ISSN 2040-2244

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Abstract

The northern region of Iraq heavily depends on rivers, such as the Greater Zab, for water supply and irrigation. Thus, river water management in light of future climate change is of paramount importance in the region. In this study, daily rainfall and temperature obtained from the Greater Zab catchment, for 1961–2008, were used in building rainfall and evapotranspiration models using LARS-WG and multiple linear regressions, respectively. A rainfall–runoff model, in the form of autoregressive model with exogenous factors, has been developed using observed flow, rainfall and evapotranspiration data. The calibrated rainfall–runoff model was subsequently used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the Greater Zab flows for the near (2011–2030), medium (2046–2065), and far (2080–2099) futures. Results from the impacts model showed that the catchment is projected to suffer a significant reduction in total annual flow in the far future; with more severe drop during the winter and spring seasons in the range of 25 to 65%. This would have serious ramifications for the current agricultural activities in the catchment. The results could be of significant benefits for water management planners in the catchment as they can be used in allocating water for different users in the catchment.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARX (p), climate change, Greater Zab River, LARS-WG, rainfall–runoff model
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions: School of Engineering
Depositing User: Tracey Gill
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2019 13:03
Last Modified: 01 Jul 2019 13:03
Identification Number: 10.2166/wcc.2017.083
URI: http://ubir.bolton.ac.uk/id/eprint/2344

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