Impacts of El Nino Southern oscillation and the Indian Ocean SSTs on inflow to the Roseires Dam in the Sudan

Osman, Yassin Z. ORCID: 0000-0003-1121-6598 (2018) Impacts of El Nino Southern oscillation and the Indian Ocean SSTs on inflow to the Roseires Dam in the Sudan. International Journal of Global Warming, 14 (3). pp. 275-287. ISSN 1758-2083

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Abstract

n this study, potential impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs indices on variability of inflow to the Roseires Dam are investigated. The objective is to investigate the relationship between these climatic indices and the river flow to enable building a forecasting tool to give a lead time prediction of inflow to the dam using lead time information of these indices. Ninety one years of annual flow (1914-2004) were used in the analysis. Correlation results showed that the annual inflow to the dam has negative relation with the ENSO-SST index and SST indices from two regions in the Indian Ocean. Two probabilistic prediction models were developed using the concept of conditional probability to forecast the inflow to the dam. Modelling results showed significant improvements in predictability of inflow when these indices are used as predictors. The models developed could contribute to better water management and operation of the dam reservoir.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Roseires Dam; Blue Nile River; El Nino Southern oscillation; ENSO; Indian Ocean SST; drought; flood
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions: Engineering, Sports and Sciences > Civil Engineering
Depositing User: Sarah Taylor
Date Deposited: 26 Mar 2018 13:46
Last Modified: 26 Mar 2018 13:46
Identification Number: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.10011574
URI: http://ubir.bolton.ac.uk/id/eprint/1619

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